This paper investigates postwar return migration among Lebanese Christians displaced during the Lebanese civil war (1975 – 1990). Between 1983 and 1985, an estimated 163,000 Christian were forcibly displaced from over 200 villages in Mount Lebanon, with most relocating to Christian suburbs in East Beirut. Nearly two decades after the war’s end, only about 20 percent of displaced Christian households had returned to their original villages as permanent residents, despite favorable conditions such as militia demobilization, the absence of sectarian violence, and the restoration of prewar property rights.
The authors theorize that displaced individuals’ decisions to return are shaped by two primary factors: emotional attachment or aversion to their original homes and economic prospects in both their current location and place of origin. Aversion to return is particularly strong when displaced persons would need to live near perpetrators of violence or in areas with a significant presence of non-coethnics. The authors suggest three possible outcomes for displaced individuals: returning permanently, returning regularly as visitors, or not returning at all. They use a natural experiment to examine these outcomes, leveraging the global olive oil boom that coincided with the end of the civil war, which provided an unexpected economic boost to villages with olive trees.
The analysis relies on several key sources: return migration data from the Institut Libanais de Développement Économique et Social (ILDES), data on massacres of Christian Lebanese from the International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ), and demographic data on Sunni, Shia, and Druze populations from the 2010 Lebanese voter registration rolls. To assess economic prospects, the authors use global olive oil prices from the International Monetary Fund, and create two variables for olive cultivation: the presence of olive trees and a weighted measure scaling olive tree presence by the proportion of surrounding agricultural land, using satellite imagery from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative.
The data shows that before the war, about one-third of the 209 villages studied were mixed (Muslim and Christian), while the remaining two-thirds were entirely Christian. Massacres occurred in 57 villages. By 2007, the percentage of displaced persons who had returned as permanent residents varied from 0 to 100%, with an average of 20 percent.
Main empirical findings:
- Displaced Christians are less likely to return to villages with a higher proportion of non-coethnics. Return rates decrease as the proportion of Muslims in a village increases, and this effect is amplified in villages where massacres occurred. However, the occurrence of massacres alone, without the presence of a mixed population, does not significantly reduce the likelihood of return.
- Economic opportunities, particularly in olive-producing villages, significantly influence return decisions. Displaced Christians are more likely to return as permanent residents to villages where olive cultivation is possible, particularly as olive oil prices rise. In villages with substantial olive cropland, a 1-point increase in the world price of olive oil leads to the permanent return of four to five additional households.
The authors conclude that even displaced individuals with strong emotional ties to their original homes may opt to return as visitors rather than permanent residents unless there are compelling economic opportunities. Additionally, they find that violence creates negative emotions not only toward the locations where it occurred but also toward the perpetrators, leading displaced persons to avoid returning to intermixed areas, which can further entrench ethnic separation. To encourage returns, the authors recommend focusing on both economic reconstruction and transitional justice. However, they emphasize that the most important policy implication is to support displaced persons in rebuilding their lives in their new locations, rather than focusing solely on inducing their return to pre-war homes.