This paper examines the factors influencing the return intentions of Syrian refugees in Lebanon. According to UNHCR data, Lebanon hosts over a million Syrian refugee, making it the largest per capita refugee population globally.
The authors investigate two potential mechanisms driving return intentions. First, they explore the impact of an individual’s past exposure to violence. Second, they examine the role of an individual’s feelings of attachment to their country of origin and their host country, which are likely influenced by their experiences in their country of origin before displacement and their experiences after arriving in their host country.
The analysis is based on a survey conducted in 2018 of nearly 2,000 Syrian refugees in Lebanon, including both observational and experimental elements. A conjoint experiment is used to isolate the effects of prior exposure to violence on risk assessment upon return to Syria. The conjoint experiment involved a random sample of 406 survey respondents, each presented with five scenarios for a hypothetical migrant, each requiring a choice between two locations. These scenarios varied certain attributes, including the chance of harm en route to the location, the chance of a peaceful situation lasting at least a year, the number of people the hypothetical migrant would know there, and the ease of finding work.
Main findings:
- Contrary to common assumptions, refugees who experienced violence in Syria are more likely to want to return, suggesting they’ve developed coping mechanisms and feel equipped to handle potential risks.
- Violence affects both men and women’s willingness to return, with no significant difference in how gender influences their risk calculations.
- Refugees who left when most of their hometown had already fled are more likely to want to return, suggesting a strong attachment to their place of origin.
- Refugees living in predominantly Syrian neighborhoods in Lebanon show a preference for return.
- Refugees who had the possibility to discuss fleeing from Syria to Lebanon before leaving Syria are more likely to prefer staying in Lebanon, suggesting they found it easier to detach from their home location and are less likely to feel anchored there. These individuals are contrasted with refugees who may not have had the time to discuss migration plans and became displaced despite their intention to stay.
- Pre-war employment does not appear to significantly influence return intentions.
- Refugees who believe the situation in Lebanon has worsened since their arrival are more likely to want to return.
- Refugees who find it easy to cross the Lebanese/Syrian border are more likely to prefer staying in Lebanon, potentially because they can easily travel back and forth informally.
- Refugees with close family in Lebanon, a job, and registration with the UN are more likely to prefer returning to Syria. While close family, jobs, and UN registration might act as social anchors in other contexts, they do not appear to strongly influence Syrian refugees’ desire to return. This may be due to the precarious nature of jobs and legal challenges faced by refugees in Lebanon.
- The conjoint experiment confirms that refugees generally prefer locations with a lower chance of harm en route. However, refugees who experienced violence in Syria show no significant difference in their preference between moderate and low levels of harm en route, suggesting they feel more capable of managing risk. The experiment also found that refugees are less likely to choose a location where it would be difficult to find work.
The authors argue that refugees who experienced violence in Syria are more likely to want to return, because they have developed coping mechanisms and are better equipped to assess risk. They are also likely to be those with stronger attachment to Syria, having waited until the last minute to flee. Furthermore, those who endured the war longer than most other residents of their hometown and those who live in predominantly Syrian neighborhoods in Lebanon also exhibit a stronger attachment to Syria, and consequently have a greater desire to return. Other factors, such as the situation in Lebanon and the ease of crossing the border, also influence preferences to return. The authors conclude that refugee preferences for returning home are complex and depend on a combination of factors, including their experiences of violence, their attachment to their homeland, and their experiences in their host country.