This paper examines the effects of mass migration on the academic performance of native Chilean students, focusing on the influx of Venezuelan (Spanish-speaking) and non-Spanish-speaking (mainly Haitian) migrants between 2016 and 2018. Between 2011 and 2018, the migrant population in Chile increased from 1.4 percent to 6.6 percent of the country’s population.
The analysis utilizes longitudinal data from the SIMCE test, a standardized assessment administered annually by the Education Quality Agency in Chile. The dataset includes students’ scores in the Mathematics and Reading SIMCE tests, individual sociodemographic variables such as parents’ educational levels and family income, and school-related variables such as school type (public, subsidized, or private), rural or urban location, regional location, and the socioeconomic background of the institution. Additionally, the authors incorporate data from the General Student Information System (SIGE), which identifies whether students were born in Chile or abroad.
The paper employs a Difference-in-Difference (DD) approach to estimate the causal effect of the migrant shock on native students’ academic performance. The treatment group consists of native students who had no migrant classmates in 2016 (4th grade) but had at least one migrant classmate in 2018 (6th grade), while the control group comprises native students who had no migrant peers during this period. The authors separately examine the effects of the influxes of exclusively Venezuelan students (Spanish speakers) and exclusively Haitian students (non-Spanish speakers).
Main results:
- The arrival of migrant students between 2016 and 2018 led to a decrease in SIMCE Reading scores for native students. Native students exposed to the migrant influx performed worse on the SIMCE Reading test (−0.051 SD) compared to those who did not receive any foreign students in their school and grade. The negative impact was more pronounced for boys (−0.072 SD) than for girls (−0.031 SD).
- Similarly, the arrival of migrant students during the same period caused a decline in SIMCE Math scores for native students. Those exposed to the migrant influx scored lower on the SIMCE Math test (−0.046 SD) than their peers without migrant classmates. The effect was stronger for boys (−0.06 SD) than for girls (−0.033 SD).
- Native students affected by the influx of Venezuelan students between 2016 and 2018 performed worse on the SIMCE Reading test (−0.05 SD) compared to those without Venezuelan classmates. The effect was stronger for boys (−0.067 SD) than for girls (−0.035 SD).
- Exposure to the influx of Venezuelan students also resulted in poorer performance on the SIMCE Mathematics test between 4th and 6th grade (−0.047 SD) for native students. The effect was stronger for boys (−0.056 SD) than for girls (−0.04 SD).
- Native students affected by the arrival of non-Spanish-speaking migrant students between 2016 and 2018 saw a decrease in SIMCE Reading scores (−0.053 SD). This effect was concentrated among boys (−0.099 SD), which was 50 percent higher than the effect associated with Venezuelan migrants. There was no statistically significant effect on girls’ Reading scores.
- There was a modest increase in the student to teacher ratio in classrooms with migrant students. This effect did not result in a one-student increase in the ratio, suggesting that it is not the main mechanism behind the decline in academic performance.
- There is some evidence of native flight in response to the migratory shock, but it was not driven by students with higher socioeconomic status or higher academic performance.
Overall, the migrant shock negatively impacted the academic performance of native Chilean students, with larger effects for male students. The arrival of migrant students between 2016 and 2018 led to a much larger decrease in SIMCE Reading scores for native boys when the shock was due to non-Spanish-speaking migrants compared to Spanish-speaking Venezuelan migrants. This suggests that the language spoken by immigrants plays a role, with non-Spanish-speaking migrants causing a larger decline in test scores. Limited school resources, indicated by an increased student-to-teacher ratio, may contribute to this effect. However, there is no evidence of native flight or “cream-skimming”, as native students with higher socioeconomic status or better academic performance did not disproportionately transfer to private schools in response to the migrant influx.