This paper investigates the determinants of the desire to return for internally displaced households in Colombia. Conflict in Colombia has caused the displacement of more than 3.9 million people.
The analysis is based on detailed survey data collected by the Catholic Church between 1997 and 2004, encompassing over 43,000 displaced households. The dataset includes information on the triggers and actors responsible for displacement, socio-demographic characteristics of the household, land tenure, access to labor markets, and participation in organisations before and after displacement, and the households’ preferences regarding return, staying in their current location, or relocating to a new municipality.
The data reveals that only 11 percent of households wish to return. In more than half of the cases, displacement occurred in reaction to a specific event, either a direct threat (42 percent), assassination (7 percent), armed confrontations in the immediate surroundings (6 percent), or the disappearance and torture of individuals (1 percent). The data also reveals a high proportion of female-headed households (40 percent) and a significant unemployment rate (33 percent) among the displaced population. About 63 percent of displaced households had access to land before being forced to leave their place of origin.
Main empirical findings:
- Households displaced due to a direct threat (assassination, abduction, torture, or extortion) are less willing to return. Households that were displaced in response to a direct attack or threat are 4 percentage points less willing to return.
- More vulnerable households have a lower desire to return. Vulnerable households, in particular female-headed households, households with high dependency ratios, and those from ethnic minorities, are less likely to want to return. Female-headed households are 4 percentage points less willing to return while households that belong to an ethnic minority are roughly 10 percentage points less willing to return.
- Social networks, as exemplified by membership in peasant organizations and collective land ownership, increase the desire to return. Participation in peasant organisations increases the willingness to return by 4 percentage points.
- Economic opportunities in the place of origin encourage return while economic opportunities at the reception site decrease the willingness to return. Household heads that were unemployed in the municipality of origin are 3 percentage points less willing to return. Similarly, household heads unemployed in the reception municipality are roughly 4 percentage points more willing to return.
- Households that own land and work in agriculture are more likely to want to return. Household heads working in agriculture either at the origin or reception site are 5 percentage points more willing to return. Access to other forms of employment in the reception site (wage employment or self-employment) decreases households’ willingness to return.
- Households with land tenure in the place of origin, in particular collective land ownership, are more likely to want to return. Land tenure increases the desire to return by about 6 percentage points. Households that had access to a collectively owned plot are 23 percentage points more willing to return, an effect almost five times larger than the effect for private property, rental, and informal occupation.
The authors conclude that the desire to return is correlated with household characteristics and the displacement process itself. Agricultural workers, and households with land tenure and strong social networks in their places of origin are more inclined to return. This suggests that access to land, which provides economic opportunities for those with agricultural skills, is a key driver of the desire to return. The authors recommend that return programs be specifically tailored to target households with these characteristics, such as those with access to land, agricultural workers, or households with strong ties to local organisations.