This paper examines the impact of cash assistance provided to Afghan refugees returning from Pakistan on household outcomes post-return. Between 2016 and 2018, UNHCR assisted more than 458,000 documented Afghan refugees who returned from Pakistan. Between July 2016 and March 2017, UNHCR increased its reintegration assistance amount from US$150 per returnee to US$350 per returnee, after which the allowance reverted to US$150 per returnee.
The authors estimate the effect of the change in cash assistance on post-return integration outcomes. The analysis is based on three post-return surveys (on average data was collected 16 months after return) combined with administrative data from UNHCR’s voluntary repatriation forms. The sample includes 1,331 returnee households who received a reintegration allowance of US$350 (treatment group) and 3,009 returnee households who received a reintegration allowance of US$150 (control group).
Key findings:
- Households that received a larger reintegration allowance were more likely to purchase long-term assets, while those that received a smaller allowance were more likely to purchase consumption goods. Households that received a larger allowance were more likely to purchase land (21 percent) compared to those that received a smaller allowance (7 percent). Households that received more cash were also more likely to use it for transportation and rental payments. Almost half of returnees who received a smaller allowance spent more than half of it on food, compared to only 17 percent of those who received the larger allowance.
- The likelihood of owning a dwelling is highly correlated with both the total payment received by the household, and the household size. Households reporting owning their residence approximately 16 months post-return received US$2,253 in reintegration assistance on average, compared to US$1,655 for households not owning a house post-return.
- There wasn’t any long-term impact of reintegration assistance on the likelihood of employment. Households receiving the smaller reintegration allowance were as likely as those receiving the larger allowance to have an employed household member.
- There was no significant impact of the variation in cash assistance on the likelihood of enrolling all household children in school. School education in Afghanistan is free, and an unconditional cash transfer to returnees might not affect school enrollment. Additionally, the data only permitted the authors to measure whether households enroll all their children in school.
- Households that received the larger reintegration allowance were more likely to have legal documentation. Households that received a larger allowance were more likely to have legal documentation for all household members (76 percent) compared to those receiving the smaller reintegration allowance (60 percent).
Overall, there was a large positive impact of cash assistance on the likelihood of home ownership, legal documentation, and consumption patterns. Households who received the larger reintegration allowance were 17 percentage points more likely to own a house, 30 percentage points more likely to have issued legal documentation for their household, and 40 percentage points less likely to have spent more than half of their reintegration assistance on food.