This paper examines the relationship between internal displacement and crime in Colombia. The authors consider five categories of crime: homicides, kidnapping, personal injuries, automobile theft and residence burglary. The main explanatory variable is the number of IDPs in each municipality. The authors find that each category of crime has different determinants and dynamics:
- The presence of IDPs is associated with higher rates of homicides and kidnapping in adjacent municipalities. A 1 percent increase in the IDP population is associated with a 2 percent increase in homicides in the host municipality. More significantly, a 1 percent increase in the IDP population is associated with a 17 percent increase in homicides and 6 percent increase in kidnappings in adjacent municipalities. The authors posit that “these patterns suggest a mobility of criminals to nearby places for committing these types of crimes.”
- The presence of IDPs is associated with lower personal injury rates. A 1 percent increase in the IDP population is associated with a 2 percent decline in personal injuries in the host municipality and a 13 percent decline in personal injuries in adjacent municipalities. The authors suggest that this is due to “an increase in social control in adjacent places due to the reception of displaced persons.”
- The presence of IDPs is associated with an increase in burglaries in the host municipality, and a reduction in burglaries in adjacent municipalities. A 1 percent increase in the IDP population is associated with a 17 percent decline in residence burglaries in adjacent municipalities.
- Automobile theft is found to be unrelated to the presence of IDPs in host or adjacent municipalities.