This paper investigates the impact of large-scale forced migration on educational attainment, specifically focusing on individuals who were of school-going age during the 1947 partition of India and Pakistan. Within four years of the partition, an estimated 14.5 million people were forcibly displaced across the newly created borders
The analysis is based on the 1973 Housing, Economic, and Demographic Characteristics (HED) Survey for Pakistan, which was administered to approximately 300,000 households and is representative at the district level. The dataset includes information on country of birth (used to identify migrants from India), birth year, household size, and educational outcomes. The analysis is restricted to individuals residing in the Punjab and Sindh provinces of Pakistan, which hosted about 99 percent of migrants from India in 1973, and focuses on individuals born between 1923 and 1951. The final sample comprises 308,546 native individuals and approximately 117,044 migrant individuals. Additionally, the analysis incorporates data from the 1931 Census of India, the 1951 Census of India, and the 1951 Census of Pakistan.
The author employs a cohort-age-based differences-in-differences estimation strategy, comparing the educational attainment of migrants (treatment group) and natives (control group) before and after the Partition, controlling for observable differences in socioeconomic characteristics between migrants and natives.
Main findings:
- Migrants of school-going age were more likely to complete 5 years of education than the natives in their cohorts. Migrants in the birth cohort group 1942–46 cohort (aged between 1 and 5 years at the time of the Partition) were 5.8 percentage points more likely to complete 5 years of education than the natives in the same birth cohort group. The largest effect is also for younger migrants in the 1947–51 cohort who are 8.9 percentage points more likely to complete 5 years of education than natives in the same birth cohort group.
- Migrants of school-going age were also more likely to complete 10 years of education than natives in their cohorts. Migrants in the 1942–46 birth cohort were 3.5 percentage points more likely to complete 10 years of education compared to natives in the same cohort. The most significant effect was seen in the 1947–51 birth cohort, where migrants were 7.6 percentage points more likely to complete 10 years of education than their native counterparts.
- Migrants in the 1932–36 and the 1937–41 age groups did not perform any worse than their native counterparts, despite likely experiencing a break or disruption in their education when they were displaced.
The author concludes that forcibly displaced migrants are more likely to achieve certain educational milestones compared to their native counterparts, despite the lack of state support. Two potential mechanisms are suggested to explain these results: (a) forcibly displaced migrants and their families may have placed a higher intrinsic value on education, driving greater motivation and effort, and (b) the possession of equal citizenship, property, and other rights by migrants may have provided them with the necessary resources and opportunities to outperform their native counterparts.