This study investigates the migration decisions of Southern Sudanese residents of Khartoum following the 2011 referendum that led to the separation of South Sudan. Specifically, it examines the relationship between wealth, security concerns, and migration choices. The authors hypothesise that the decision to migrate is a trade-off between better economic opportunities and access to services in the North versus greater personal security in the South, given the precarious situation of Southerners living in Khartoum.
The study utilizes a two-round panel survey conducted in 2010 and 2011, capturing data on a sample of 204 Southern Sudanese individuals. The survey included over 150 questions covering political opinions, social networks, government interactions, media exposure, war experiences, and individual/household characteristics.
Main results:
- The decision to migrate was heavily influenced by how individuals anticipated the impact of partition on their personal security. Those who believed the separation of South Sudan would positively affect their security were more likely to remain in Khartoum. Conversely, those who anticipated a negative or neutral effect on their security were more likely to leave.
- The poorest and wealthiest individuals were most likely to relocate, while those in the middle of the wealth distribution were more likely to stay. This pattern was observed using both objective measures of wealth, such as household ownership of assets like refrigerators, televisions, computers, and internet access, and subjective assessments of relative wealth.
- Age, risk tolerance, place of birth, and years lived in Khartoum did not significantly influence migration decisions.
- Southerners who migrated from Khartoum were the most optimistic about the effects of partition. Southerners who migrated from Khartoum reported more positive perceptions of partition’s impact on their political rights, economic well-being, and personal security compared to those who stayed. This is despite a significant increase in unemployment among those who relocated.
The study revealed a U-shaped relationship between wealth and migration. Both the poorest and wealthiest Southerners were more likely to relocate, while those in the middle of the wealth distribution were more likely to stay. This suggests that the poorest could accept the hardship of South Sudan due to limited opportunities in Khartoum, while the wealthiest could afford the costs of relocation and potentially access better opportunities elsewhere. Middle-income households, however, were less likely to risk their economic stability in Khartoum despite security concerns.