This month’s Digest, Understanding Refugee Return: Key Findings, Gaps, and Future Research, is a must read for anyone interested in forced displacement. It details what we do and don’t know about the return of forcibly displaced people from populations in Africa, the Middle East and the Americas, particularly refugees. The reason why the Digest is so important is because many, if not most, refugees want to return to their country.

As the number of forcibly displaced people continues to rise, the contrast between returns and resettlement figures is striking and was presented at the 3ʳᵈ JDC Research Conference in September.

Afghanistan 

Afghans constitute one of the largest populations of refugees in the world and Pakistan is host to 1.7 million of these people. In October 2023, the Government of Pakistan announced plans to repatriate undocumented foreigners, including a large number of Afghans. To understand how this population could be affected by their return to Afghanistan, the World Bank, UNHCR and IOM conducted a rapid needs assessment in May this year. Supported by the JDC, the assessment found that returns were geographically concentrated – Kunar province could experience a population increase of more than 50 percent. A significant proportion of these returnees were children under 15 (56 percent), and 77 percent were primarily engaged in low-skill manual labor in urban settings prior to their return. As a result, they may face significant challenges settling into rural areas. 

A return of this magnitude to Afghanistan is not without precedent. Between 2001 and 2015, approximately 4.8 million refugees were assisted to return by UNHCR. The difference between then and now is that the returns occurred during a period of sustained economic growth. In 2021, Afghanistan experienced an economic contraction of 20.7 percent, indicating that the local economy is unlikely to absorb the excess of unskilled labor that the recent returns could bring. This does not bode well, particularly as research by Blair et al. studied a prior wave of Afghan returns from Iran in 2018 and found that ‘impoverished returns worsened insurgent violence’. This study and the rapid needs assessment emphasize the importance of tailored support for returnees and host communities. 

South Sudan 

UNHCR’s Forced Displacement Survey also captured data from returnees in South Sudan which have been summarized in a brief released that will be released in December. The brief analyzes areas that have seen a surge in returns, predominately from Uganda, and found that, as only one in ten of those surveyed have identity documents, this is key to their reintegration and development. As is access to land, which is closely associated with employment, income stability and reduced dependence on assistance.

The JDC supported both of these studies to help identify ways that responses can be made sustainable by engaging development programs. Refugee returns are a large population for which durable solutions are possible, but data and evidence remain critical to ensure that these people, who are already vulnerable, are not further disadvantaged.

Aissatou Maisha Dicko

Head of the World Bank-UNHCR Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement