This paper investigates the impact of Syrian refugees on crime rates in Türkiye between 2006 and 2016. By 2016, approximately 3 million Syrian refugees had settled in Türkiye, resulting in a 4 percent increase in the country’s population. Syrian refugees in Türkiye generally have lower educational attainment compared to citizens, and most employed refugees work in the informal sector.
The analysis utilizes data on Syrian refugees in each of the 81 provinces of the country from the Presidency of Migration Management, and new criminal cases received by prosecutors each year from annual reports produced by the Ministry of Justice. The years 2017 and 2018 are excluded from the analysis due to significant increases in new criminal cases during these years, which were influenced by a state of emergency declared by the government following an unsuccessful coup attempt in 2016. Consequently, the analysis focuses on the period from 2006 to 2016.
To isolate the impact of refugees on criminal activity, the authors exploit the variation in the number of refugees across provinces over time. An instrumental variable approach is employed to address the potential endogeneity of refugee location, which may arise if the intensity of the refugee inflow to a destination province is related to some unobserved province attributes. The authors use a weighted metric for the distance between the source governorates in Syria and the destination provinces in Türkiye as the source of exogenous variation in refugees’ location preferences.
Main results:
- The presence of Syrian refugees has a positive effect on local criminal activity in Türkiye. Specifically, an increase of 1,000 refugees is associated with an additional 240 crimes reported to prosecutors’ offices in a typical province. It is important to note that this increase in criminal activity is not solely attributable to refugees, as both refugees and natives contribute to the rise in crime.
- An increase in the number of low-skilled native residents also leads to a rise in crime. However, the impact on crime is more pronounced for an equivalent increase in the refugee population compared to the native population.
The authors conclude that the increase in the refugee population has a positive impact on crime rates. However, they note that part or all of this increase may be driven by the native population, possibly in response to changes in labor market conditions triggered by the refugee inflow. The authors emphasize the need to strengthen social safety nets, implement measures to counteract adverse labor market impacts, and provide additional support to the criminal justice system to mitigate the repercussions of a massive influx of refugees into the country.