This article investigates the impact of de jure refugee rights on the risk of civil conflict and violent attacks against refugees by the local population. The de jure rights examined include the right to work, freedom of movement, the right to own property and land, and the right to education.
The analysis utilizes an original global dataset on refugees’ rights, data on civilian violence against refugees from the Political and Societal Violence by and against Refugees (POSVAR) dataset, and data on the onset of civil conflict from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset. The analysis covers annual data for all countries between 1996 and 2015, focusing on two main dependent variables: civil conflict and civilian violence against refugees.
Main findings:
- Granting more rights to refugees reduces the risk of civil conflict onset. The effects are particularly pronounced for the rights to freedom of movement, the right to work, and the right to own property. The right to education and the right to own land also show a negative association with civil conflict, but the results are not statistically significant.
- Countries that extend more rights to their refugee populations are less likely to experience civilian violence against refugees. Preliminary evidence indicates a negative association between the provision of refugee rights and the occurrence of violence against refugees.
- The size of the refugee population, ethnic fractionalization, GDP per capita, level of unemployment, and democracy are positively associated with an increase in civilian anti-refugee violence, while the rule of law seems to decrease the risk of violence. However, changes in the percentage of the refugee population and economic recessions do not show a discernible effect on the incidence of civilian violence against refugees.
The author concludes that liberal refugee policies are significantly associated with a reduction in the risk of civil conflict and anti-refugee violence in host countries. This finding suggests that host governments and international organizations should give greater priority to guaranteeing refugee rights and promoting income-generating activities among forcibly displaced populations to minimize potential security risks associated with refugees.