This paper investigates policy preferences and attitudes to refugees in South Africa. South Africa hosted more than 240,000 refugees and asylum seekers in mid-2022. The vast majority (84 per cent) originated from other African countries, mainly Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Somalia.
The study utilizes data from the 2020 South African Social Attitudes Survey (SASAS), which is nationally representative and includes responses from 3,133 individuals. Respondents were asked a series of questions to gauge their preferences regarding refugee policies and their perceptions of the threats posed by refugees in various domains, including safety, labor market, health, and resources. Additionally, the survey assessed the level of deprivation respondents felt in areas such as housing, transport, healthcare, clothing, and food, how often they attended religious services, and how knowledgeable they felt about the refugee situation in South Africa. The survey also collected a variety of socio-demographic variables that were used as controls in the analysis.
The data reveals a significant diversity of opinion on refugee settlement policy, with no single policy position emerging as dominant. More than a third (36 percent) selected the most exclusionary option, advocating for refugees to be sent back to their countries of origin. A quarter (25 percent) believed that refugees should be confined to camps on the border. About a tenth (11 percent) thought that refugees could reside inside the country but should not be allowed to work. Less than a fifth (19 percent) supported the most inclusionary option, which aligns with the current official policy. Only a small minority (9 percent) were unsure of how to answer the question.
Main empirical findings:
- Immigrant threat perceptions were found to be a robust correlate of exclusionary policy preferences. The more threatened an individual felt by international migrants, the more likely they were to support excluding refugees from South Africa. Among the various types of threats, resource threat had the strongest correlation with exclusionary attitudes, while health threat had the weakest.
- Economic anxiety emerged as one of the strongest correlates in the analysis. However, objective economic status was a poor predictor of attitudes towards refugees. Higher levels of economic anxiety correlated with stronger support for exclusionary policies. The relationship was non-linear, with the strongest effects observed for the most exclusionary options.
- Knowledge about refugees increased the likelihood of supporting liberal policies. However, it was a weaker predictor compared to threat perceptions and economic anxiety.
- Religious attendance was correlated with more progressive policy preferences. Individuals who attended religious services or meetings were more likely to adopt a progressive stance on refugee settlement policies.
The study concludes that threat perceptions are the most significant driver of public attitudes towards refugee settlement in South Africa. Economic anxiety and religiosity also play important roles, while subjective knowledge has a weaker effect. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and advocates seeking to reduce anti-refugee sentiment and promote more inclusive policies.