This paper investigates the mechanisms through which COVID-19 affected poverty and food insecurity in refugee-hosting districts in Uganda. Uganda hosts the largest refugee population in Sub-Saharan Africa, with approximately 1.5 million refugees.
Specifically, the authors investigate the pathways linking the COVID-19 shock to household poverty and food security, while also testing whether the pandemic’s effects varied across different household groups. The analysis considers two primary transmission channels: job loss and disruption of food value chains (FVC). To explore the heterogeneity of COVID-19’s impact, the study analyzes different household groups based on their income source (agricultural vs. non-agricultural) and their level of market integration (food net-buyer, net-seller, and self-sufficient).
The analysis relies on data from the FAO-RIMA Uganda Refugee and Host Communities Panel Survey, a four-round longitudinal survey representative of refugee and host communities at the district and settlement levels. The study utilizes the second round (December 2019, pre-COVID-19) as a baseline and the third round (December 2020, nine months after the COVID-19 outbreak) as a follow-up. The final balanced sample comprises 2,969 households, 52 percent of which are refugee households.
Main findings:
- COVID-19 significantly disrupted food supply chains and reduced employment in refugee-hosting districts of Uganda, leading to higher food prices and lower household incomes. The disruption in food supply chains accounted for the majority (85.6 percent) of the overall indirect effect, whereas reduced employment accounted for 14.5 percent. While reduced employment affected both poverty and food security, the disruption in food supply chains affected food security only.
- Refugee households were more severely affected than hosts by direct and indirect effects of COVID-19. This was due to a greater impact on their employment opportunities and a lesser ability to benefit from rising food prices compared to hosts. Cash transfers were also crucial for mitigating the negative impacts of COVID-19 on refugees, helping to offset income losses and reduce poverty, while food assistance was essential for maintaining food security.
- Households that bought more food than they produce (net-buyers) and households that didn’t rely on agriculture for income (non-agricultural households) were hit hardest by disruptions in the food supply chain. While net-buyer households (and non-agricultural households) are adversely affected by increases in food prices, the effect on net-seller households was mixed because they could partially offset the negative effect as consumers with the gain as producers (i.e. increased agricultural income).
The authors conclude that COVID-19 significantly impacted poverty and food security in refugee-hosting districts of Uganda, primarily through disruptions to the food value chain and job losses. Refugees were disproportionately affected compared to host households, experiencing greater income losses due to reduced employment opportunities. Additionally, there were more net-buyer and non-agricultural households among the refugee population, which were hardest hit by disruptions in the food supply chain and increased food prices. The study highlights the importance of targeted interventions to address the specific vulnerabilities of different household groups, particularly non-agricultural and net-buyer households, who rely heavily on off-farm income and food assistance.