This paper examines the ecological impact of the Rohingya refugee influx in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. More than 720,000 Rohingya refugees have fled Myanmar since August 2017 and have settled in camps in the Teknaf and Ukhiya Upazilas of Cox’s Bazar district.
The research area focused on the Cox’s Bazar district, particularly the Teknaf and Ukhiya Upazilas, where the majority of Rohingya refugee camps are located. The analysis is based on high-resolution multispectral satellite images from Sentinel-2A and Sentinel-2B satellites from before the Rohingya refugee influx (2017) and after it (2021), as well as Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) images to estimate changes in land surface temperature. The authors use various machine learning and fuzzy model techniques to investigate changes in land use and land cover (LULC) patterns, the valuation and functioning of ecosystem services, and ecological quality before and after the Rohingya influx.
Main findings:
- The increased number of Rohingya refugees has led to a 10 percent decrease in forest area and an 8 percent increase in settlement areas. The increased settlement in the study area has led to the conversion of 5,488 ha of forest cover into settlements.
- The estimated total ecosystem services value (ESV) in the research area was $67.83 million in 2017 and $67.78 million in 2021, respectively. Between 2017 and 2021, the timber industry is estimated to lose US$5.33 million (or 22 percent) in economic surplus from ESV.
- The reduction in forest lands has contributed to a 14 percent decline in raw materials and a 15 percent decline in biodiversity.
- The ecological quality (EQ) conditions in the area have deteriorated from “very good” or “good” to “bad” or “very bad” following the Rohingya influx.
The authors conclude that the influx of Rohingya refugees in Ukhiya and Teknaf Upazilas has resulted in a decrease in forest area and an increase in settlement areas, leading to a decline in ecosystem service values and ecological quality conditions. The findings highlight the need for proactive measures to mitigate the environmental impact of large refugee settlements, including sustainable forest resource management, and to mitigate potential social tensions between refugees and host communities arising from increased competition for ecological resources.