This article investigates the incidence of child marriage among displaced and host populations in humanitarian settings in Bangladesh, Nepal, Djibouti, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
The analysis is based on data collected through cross-sectional surveys of displaced and host populations in the six countries between 2018 and 2019. Data was collected from female heads of household and one or two adolescent household members (aged 10–19). The overall sample of adolescent girls ranged from 1,031 in Bangladesh to 1,969 in Iraq.
The cumulative incidence of child marriage was estimated across age cohorts of displaced groups in four of the six settings for which age cohort data was available (Djibouti and Iraq were excluded). The cumulative incidence of child marriage between displaced and host populations was calculated in four of the six countries for which data was available for both groups (Lebanon and Nepal were excluded). Data were analyzed separately for each country and then pooled to generate cross-country estimates and associations.
Main results:
- In Bangladesh, there was no significant difference in the hazard of child marriage between Rohingya refugees and hosts or across refugee age cohorts. 16 percent of sampled Rohingya refugees married before age 18 compared with 12 percent of hosts, but the difference in child marriage hazard was not statistically significant. 15 percent of Rohingya aged 15–19 years married before age 18 compared with 10 percent among Rohingya aged 20–24 years, but the difference in hazard across age cohorts was not significant.
- In Nepal, younger cohorts were significantly less likely to marry compared to older comparators, with 10 percent of IDP women aged 15–19 marrying before age 18, compared with 32 percent of aged 25–29 IDP women. The difference in hazard of child marriage was statistically significant.
- In Djibouti, refugees had a lower hazard of child marriage compared to hosts. 8 percent of Yemeni refugees married before age 18 compared with 20 percent of Somali refugees and 30 percent of hosts. Hosts had a significantly higher hazard of child marriage compared with Somali and Yemeni refugees. Among refugees, Somalis had significantly higher hazards than Yemenis.
- In Iraq, child marriage hazard did not differ significantly between displaced and hosts. 21 percent of IDPs married before age 18, compared with 19 percent of Syrian refugees and 14 percent of hosts, but differences in the hazard of child marriage across groups was not significant.
- In Lebanon, younger cohorts were less likely to marry compared with older comparators. 33 percent of Syrian refugees married before age 18 compared with 92 percent among 25–29 years old Syrian women, and the difference in the hazard of child marriage was statistically significant.
- In Yemen, IDPs had a significantly higher hazard of child marriage compared to hosts, and among IDPs, younger cohorts were more likely to marry, indicating an increase in child marriage rates after conflict. 29 percent IDPs married before age 18 compared with 18 percent of hosts, and the difference in hazard was significant. 25 percent of 15–19 years old IDPs married before age 18 compared with 16 percent of the older age cohort, and the difference in the hazard of child marriage was significant.
- Overall, the average hazard of child marriage was significantly higher among displaced than in host populations, after adjusting for country context. In the pooled analysis, 23 percent of displaced married before age 18 compared with 18 percent of hosts. Displaced girls had a 30 percent increased hazard of child marriage compared with host counterparts.
- On average across settings, younger age cohorts had a lower hazard of child marriage compared with older cohorts. Younger age cohorts were at 64 percent lower hazard of child marriage compared with host women after adjusting for country contexts.
The results did not provide definitive evidence that displacement and humanitarian crisis necessarily increase rates of child marriage. Rather, the impact of displacement on child marriage rates is likely context-specific and dependent on the prevailing drivers of child marriage that vary by setting. For example, in both Bangladesh and Nepal there are dowry cultures where wealth is transferred from the bride’s family to that of the groom; in times of uncertainty families may opt to delay the age of marriage because they are unable to provide dowries. In Yemen, where bride price is customary, economic deprivation may have led families to resort to child marriage as a coping strategy.